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Equity Research
Company Update
Tuesday,13 April 2021 Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa(INTP IJ)
BUY
Maintain Strong monthly sales
Last price (IDR) 12,225 Monthly cement sales have shown a continuous improvement since the
Target Price (IDR) 16,800 beginning of the year with sales in Mar higher than in either Jan or Feb. INTP’s
sales in Mar reached 1.41mn tons (+13.5%yoy and +22.0%mom), better than
Upside/Downside +37.4% the sector’s performance. YTD, INTP’s sales in 1Q21 reached 3.85mn tons
Previous Target Price (IDR) 18,100 (+1.4%yoy). INTP’s 1Q sales volume is 23% of our FY21 target - in-line. We
expect sales volume to grow by +3.5%yoy in 2021 while ASP are estimated to
Stock Statistics grow by +2.0%yoy. We maintain our BUY call on INTP.
Sector Cement INTP’s sales volume in Mar21 reached 1.41mn tons (+13.5%yoy and
Bloomberg Ticker INTP IJ +22.0%mom), supported by strong sales outside Java which grew by +36.7%yoy
and +17.6%mom to 0.41mn tons. Sales in Sumatra jumped by +56.1%yoy and
No of Shrs (mn) 3,681 +28.5%mom, while sales in Sulawesi grew by +59.5%yoy but -6.5%mom. The
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 45,003/3,083 strong sales in Sulawesi were supported by the availability of the floating
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 55.6/3.8 terminal in Konawe, South East Sulawesi, which was moved from its previous
location at Samarinda, East Kalimantan in May 20. The outside Java market
Major shareholders (%) contributed 29.2% to sales. Meanwhile, sales in Western Java, INTP’s home
base, recorded growth of +3.8%yoy and +24.0%mom. INTP’s yoy and mom
Birchwood Omnia Limited 51.0 growth in Mar21 outperformed the sector, resulting in higher market share of
Public 49.0 26.4% compared to 24.9% in Feb21 and 25.9% in Mar20.
YTD, INTP’s sales volume in 1Q21 reached 3.85mn tons (+1.4%yoy). The
flattish growth reflected lower sales in Feb21 caused by the bad weather that
EPS Consensus (IDR) disrupted distribution. Sales in Western Java dropped by -4.3%yoy, dragged
2021F 2022F 2023F down by weak sales in Jakarta (-14.9%yoy). By comparison, sales outside Java
Danareksa 538.1 618.9 679.0 were solid with sales in Sumatra up by +17.5%yoy while sales in Sulawesi
jumped +46.8%yoy. Sumatra contributed 11.4% of the 1Q sales, while Sulawesi
Consensus 517.3 598.5 642.4 contributed only 3.0%.
Danareksa/Cons 4.0 3.4 5.7 The 1Q21 sales volume of 3.85mn tons is 23% of our FY21 target. We expect
3.5%yoy growth in sales volume this year. We believe that our target is quite
INTP relative to JCI Index conservative and achievable considering that historically 1Q accounted for
22.6-23.5% of the FY figure. At the same time, we expect 2.0%yoy growth in
ASP. This would result in +8.1%yoy growth in revenues to IDR15.3tn and net
income of IDR2.0tn (+9.7%yoy).
Domestic cement demand in Mar21 reached 5.33mn tons (+11.4%yoy and
+15.1%mom), supported by strong growth in Java and Sumatra. Sales in Java
jumped by +11.1%yoy and +16.9%mom, while Sumatra sales grew by
+13.1%yoy and 13.6%mom. YTD, domestic cement consumption in 1Q21
reached 14.87mn tons, up by +2.2%yoy, supported by strong sales in Sumatra
as Java saw flattish growth. Sales in Sumatra grew by +6.8%yoy, while Java sales
grew by +0.6%yoy. Java contributed 54% of the domestic market sales, while
Sumatra contributed 22%.
Maintain BUY. We maintain our BUY call on INTP with a new TP of IDR16,800.
Our TP is based on DCF valuation with WACC of 11.2% and TG of 3.0%. INTP is
Source : Bloomberg traded at EV/ton of USD105.5 compared to SMGR’s USD105.4.
Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue (IDRbn) 15,939 14,184 15,339 16,466 17,620
EBITDA (IDRbn) 3,198 3,362 3,398 3,682 3,821
EBITDA Growth (%) 59.4 5.1 1.1 8.4 3.8
Net profit (IDRbn) 1,835 1,806 1,981 2,278 2,500
EPS (IDR) 498.6 490.7 538.1 618.9 679.0
EPS growth (%) 60.2 (1.6) 9.7 15.0 9.7
x Maria Renata BVPS (IDR) 6,269.7 6,024.1 6,071.5 6,152.3 6,212.5
DPS (IDR) 550.0 500.0 490.7 538.1 618.9
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3513
PER (x) 24.5 24.9 22.7 19.8 18.0
maria.renata@danareksa.co.id
PBV (x) 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Dividend yield (%) 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.4 5.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 11.1 10.6 9.6 9.1
Source : INTP, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth
Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates
Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. G earing Level
Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates
Exhibit 5. PE Band Chart Exhibit 6. Share Price Chart
80 IDR Tn
70 250.0
60 +2SD: 58.8x 200.0
50 +1SD: 47.5x
40 150.0
Avg.: 36.2x 60.0X
30 -1SD: 24.9x 100.0 50.0X
20 40.0X
-2SD: 13.6x 50.0 30.0X
10 20.0X
0 8 9 0 - 8 9 0
18n-r-18y-1 ul-18p-18ov-18n-19r-19y-1ul-19p-19ov-19n-20r-20y-2ul-20p-20ov-20n-21r-21 -18 r-18y-1 ul-18p-18v-18-19r-19y-1 ul-19p-19v-19-20r-20 -2 ul-20p-20v-20-21r-21
aJ Ma Ma J Se N Ja Ma Ma J Se N Ja Ma Ma J Se N Ja Ma Jan Ma Ma J Se No Jan Ma Ma J Se No Jan Ma May J Se No Jan Ma
Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
Exhibit 7. INTP cement sales breakdown
Mn tons Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 % yoy % mom % 3M20 3M21 % yoy %
Jakarta 0.15 0.11 0.13 -9.7% 15.2% 9.3% 0.43 0.36 -14.9% 9.4%
Banten 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.9% 20.4% 8.8% 0.35 0.34 -4.7% 8.7%
West Java 0.36 0.31 0.40 10.3% 28.5% 28.3% 1.09 1.09 0.0% 28.2%
Ctrl Java 0.22 0.20 0.25 16.7% 27.7% 18.0% 0.64 0.69 7.8% 18.0%
Yogya. 0.02 0.01 0.02 6.7% 23.5% 1.3% 0.05 0.05 -1.2% 1.3%
E.Java 0.08 0.06 0.07 -7.6% 13.2% 5.2% 0.24 0.21 -12.3% 5.5%
W. Java 0.63 0.53 0.65 3.8% 24.0% 46.4% 1.87 1.79 -4.3% 46.4%
C. Java 0.23 0.21 0.27 16.0% 27.4% 19.3% 0.69 0.74 7.2% 19.3%
Java 0.94 0.80 1.00 5.7% 23.9% 70.8% 2.80 2.74 -2.2% 71.2%
Sumatra 0.10 0.13 0.16 56.1% 28.5% 11.6% 0.37 0.44 17.5% 11.4%
Kalimantan 0.05 0.07 0.08 48.4% 10.3% 5.5% 0.20 0.21 5.3% 5.5%
Sulawesi 0.03 0.05 0.04 59.5% -6.5% 3.0% 0.08 0.12 46.8% 3.0%
Nusa Tgg. 0.11 0.09 0.11 1.0% 23.5% 8.0% 0.31 0.30 -1.4% 7.9%
East Ind. 0.00 0.01 0.01 211.0% -4.2% 0.9% 0.04 0.04 12.9% 1.1%
INTP - total 1.24 1.15 1.41 13.5% 22.0% 100.0% 3.80 3.85 1.4% 100.0%
Market sh 25.9% 24.9% 26.4% 26.1% 25.9%
Source: Company
Exhibit 8. Domestic cement consumption
Mar- Mar- %
Mn tons 20 Feb-21 21 % yoy mom % 3M20 3M21 % yoy %
- -
Jakarta 0.27 0.21 0.24 12.1% 13.7% 4.5% 0.82 0.66 19.3% 4.5%
Banten 0.23 0.25 0.28 19.2% 11.5% 5.3% 0.68 0.78 14.0% 5.2%
West Java 0.82 0.76 0.89 9.5% 18.4% 16.3% 2.46 2.53 3.0% 17.0%
Ctrl Java 0.54 0.56 0.69 27.2% 23.9% 12.0% 1.72 1.90 10.2% 12.8%
Yogya. 0.07 0.08 0.10 42.3% 24.8% 1.7% 0.23 0.26 15.7% 1.8%
E.Java 0.61 0.57 0.63 2.7% 10.3% 12.3% 2.01 1.84 -8.5% 12.4%
W. Java 1.32 1.21 1.41 6.8% 16.2% 26.1% 3.96 3.97 0.3% 26.7%
C. Java 0.61 0.64 0.79 29.0% 24.0% 13.7% 1.95 2.16 10.8% 14.5%
Java 2.54 2.42 2.82 11.1% 16.9% 52.2% 7.92 7.97 0.6% 53.6%
Sumatra 1.04 1.04 1.18 13.1% 13.6% 22.4% 3.11 3.32 6.8% 22.3%
Kalimanta
n 0.30 0.29 0.34 13.9% 18.5% 6.2% 0.97 0.91 -5.6% 6.1%
Sulawesi 0.45 0.49 0.51 14.8% 6.1% 10.5% 1.24 1.42 14.6% 9.6%
Nusa Tgg. 0.30 0.24 0.29 -2.1% 18.4% 5.3% 0.83 0.75 -9.7% 5.1%
East Ind. 0.16 0.16 0.18 13.9% 13.3% 3.5% 0.48 0.49 2.5% 3.3%
100.0 100.0
Indonesia 4.79 4.63 5.33 11.4% 15.1% % 14.55 14.87 2.2% %
Source: Company
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
Exhibit 9. Quarterly sales analysis
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY
Sales vol.
2018 4.10 3.77 5.02 4.91 17.80
2019 4.03 3.69 4.90 5.25 17.86
2020 3.80 3.27 4.55 4.57 16.19
2021 3.85 16.75
Avg. monthly sales
2018 1.37 1.26 1.67 1.64 5.93
2019 1.34 1.23 1.63 1.75 5.95
2020 1.27 1.09 1.52 1.52 5.40
2021 1.28
%yoy
2019 -1.7% -2.3% -2.4% 6.9% 0.3%
2020 -5.7% -11.4% -7.1% -12.9% -9.4%
2021 1.4%
%qoq
2019 -17.9% -8.5% 32.9% 7.0%
2020 -27.6% -14.0% 39.5% 0.4%
2021 -15.7%
% contribution
2018 23.0% 21.2% 28.2% 27.6% 100.0%
2019 22.6% 20.6% 27.4% 29.4% 100.0%
2020 23.5% 20.2% 28.1% 28.2% 100.0%
2021 23.0%
Source: BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 10. Changes in our forecast
New Old Chg. (%) YoY (%)
2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
ASP growth (YoY%) 2.2% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% nm nm nm nm
Sales vol growth (%YoY) -9.7% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 4.2% nm nm nm nm
Revenues 14,184 15,339 16,466 15,031 16,160 2.0% 1.9% 8.1% 7.3%
Gross profit 5,114 5,535 6,035 5,119 5,804 8.1% 4.0% 8.2% 9.0%
Operating profit 1,960 2,227 2,547 1,880 2,395 18.4% 6.4% 13.6% 14.4%
Net income 1,806 1,981 2,278 1,727 2,157 14.7% 5.6% 9.7% 15.0%
GPM (%) 36.1% 36.1% 36.7% 34.1% 35.9% 6.0% 2.0%
OPM (%) 13.8% 14.5% 15.5% 12.5% 14.8% 16.1% 4.4%
NPM (%) 12.7% 12.9% 13.8% 11.5% 13.3% 12.4% 3.6%
Source: BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
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