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Having a sales predictive model is the first step towards creating a
data-driven company. Alongside the predictive model, it is advisable
to adopt a series of tools to support decisional business processes.
Alfredo Maria Garibaldi
Partner | Analytics Country Leader
MONITORING TOOLagaribaldi@deloitte.it
Building dashboards that visualize predicted Daniele Pier Giorgio Bobba
results and comparisons with previous years Partner
is a key tool for business users interested in dbobba@deloitte.it
monitoring the actual performance of the
company.Marco Leani
Partner
mleani@deloitte.it
Alberto Ferrario
KPIs REPORTINGDirector
alferrario@deloitte.it
It is important to create a tool that gives users
the possibility to analyze KPIs and detect
misalignments or deviation from expected
values or targets (e.g.: early-warning, alerts,
traffic light charts…).
PRESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
Prescriptive Analytics extends beyond
predictive analytics by specifying both the
actions necessary to achieve predicted
outcomes and the interrelated effects of each
decision. This kind of analysis is able to answer
questions such as “what do we need to do to
achieve a specific forecast?”
Our national team of over 200 professionals has proven experience in structuring,
managing, and delivering Enterprise Information Management strategies and
TOOLS FOR DEVELOPING AND implementation services. Through the collective experience of local practice and leveraging
assets and best practices of our global WW Deloitte Analytics team, we have serve our
REPORTING SALES FORECASTINGcustomers with a broad array of toolkits, accelerators, models, leading-edge practices,
diagnostics, and governance approaches to accelerate and improve the quality of EIM
Deloitte Analytics has a vast knowledge of projects and ensure a focus on value creation.
technical tools for data management, data Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company
modelling and reporting in Sales Forecasting. limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL
Access to relevant data-driven insights is a and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also Sales forecasting
necessity not only to formulate an effective referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not
provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a more detailed
business strategy, but also to monitor its description of DTTL and its member firms.Deloitte Analytics Approach
execution. © 2018 Deloitte Consulting Srl
The growing world Principles for a great Sales Forecast
of data N PROBLEM DEFINITION
USE EXTERNAL DATA INVOLVE BUSINESS EXPERTS O Identify the main business goals and set
I 1
T expectations before any development phase.
Robust predictions benefit from having Sales forecasting is not a one-time activity, A
T
high quality and easily accessible data. but an ongoing process that affects every ING C
T E
These data can be enriched with external aspect of the sales pipeline. Therefore, it is T P DATA GATHERING & PREPARATION
Data has undoubtedly become the fuel for competitive E X
advantage in the 21st century. sources that can contribute improving the important not only to make predictions S E Search and preprocess the data to define and
quality of the predictions. Depending on based on the numbers on hand but also integrate the different data sources that will be
Nowadays we generate and collect enormous volumes of data the product of the company, different to pair these numbers with qualitative 2 used as foundation for the models.
and we are able to give machines the appropriate input for kinds of external data could be used. information in order to get a more realistic Data preparation is one of the most important and
them to learn and predict outcomes by using algorithms to Below are some examples of open view of the business. This can be achieved critical phases in a data mining project: data needs
external data: with appropriate communication and N to be effectively interpreted and analysed.
interpret raw data. • income-age geographical distribution collaboration between the business and G IO
N T
• blogs or social networks the team involved in the construction of I A EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
T M
Why sales forecasting • articles the forecasting model. C R Primary analyses are carried out on data in order
• macro-economic factors LLE O to use insights from results to define further steps.
Sales forecasting allows companies to spot potential issues or risks and design appropriate • sector indexes O The KPIs that should be used in the machine
corrective actions to mitigate them. C INF 3 learning models would be individuated and it
180 15% would be assessed how they are related to each
160 10% other.
SALES DEMAND INVENTORY FINANCIAL 140
PLANNING PLANNING CONTROLS PLANNING 5% MACHINE LEARNING
Sales forecasting helps The sales forecast is the The more accurate the Anticipating sales gives 120 0% N The process of applying statistical algorithms on
sales managers planning best way to get a good sales forecast, the better managers the 100 prepared dataset, providing a rigorous framework
their future activities, estimate of the product prepared your company information they need to -5% IO
providing each of them demand. Sales teams are will be to manage its predict revenue and 80 T to test those models.
with a business plan for in the front line of inventory, avoiding both profit. Having good -10% ING A 4
managing their territory. business forecasting and 60 L M Insights drawn from previous phases are used to
overstock and stock-out forecasting information -15% E R choose the most appropriate models that could be
Forecasting is the tool best positioned to gather situations. Stable gives a company the 40 D O
that helps them identifing information about inventory also means ability to explore 20 -20% O applied, evaluate pros and cons and implement the
the necessary customers anticipated demand better management of possibilities to rise both M INF solution.
to meet their targets. your production revenue and net income 0 -25%
M +1 M +2 M +3 M +4 M +5 M +6 M +7 M +8 M +9 M +10
DEVIATION REAL FORECAST VALIDATION & TESTING
Assess models’ accuracy and robustness. As
INTERNAL CONTINUOS GAIN MARKETING DEFINE CLEAR NEEDS BE FLEXIBLE TO CHANGE 5 models are used to forecast future sales, they
CONTROLS IMPROVEMENT INSIGHTS BENEFITS should be generalized and be able to give reliable
Having an insight on the Continuous improvement Accurate sales Sales forecasting gives The key phase in creating a sales It is impossible to use a single model that results outside of the dataset they have been
projected production is a goal of many if not all forecasting can help you marketing an important forecasting solution is the understanding will ensure the track of the exact terms, developed on.
rates gives the possibility businesses. By tracking data and gaining look at future sales. and the definition of the business needs: time, and context of every sale. Instead,
to have a better control forecasting sales and insights into areas where This offers the G IONS
of the internal continually revising improvements can be opportunity to schedule this allows to delimit the perimeter of what companies should focus on developing a N RESULTS COMMUNICATION
operations. By processes to increase made. Furthermore, it promotions if sales are I T
is requested, what can be achieved and process that can be managed, re- R A Communicate effectively the advanced analytics
anticipating future sales, accuracy, companies can can help understanding expected to be too weak A T
managers can make improve all aspects of the customers’ behaviour how it can be achieved. Business evaluated, and modified as conditions P C models results and translate them into actionable
E 6
decisions about hiring, their business in order to increase knowledge is essential to define the most change. OM P business insights. Models results should assist
marketing and expansion performance conversion rates X
appropriate analytics tool. C E business in decision-making.
The growing world Principles for a great Sales Forecast
of data N PROBLEM DEFINITION
USE EXTERNAL DATA INVOLVE BUSINESS EXPERTS O Identify the main business goals and set
I 1
T expectations before any development phase.
Robust predictions benefit from having Sales forecasting is not a one-time activity, A
T
high quality and easily accessible data. but an ongoing process that affects every ING C
T E
These data can be enriched with external aspect of the sales pipeline. Therefore, it is T P DATA GATHERING & PREPARATION
Data has undoubtedly become the fuel for competitive E X
advantage in the 21st century.sources that can contribute improving the important not only to make predictions S E Search and preprocess the data to define and
quality of the predictions. Depending on based on the numbers on hand but also integrate the different data sources that will be
Nowadays we generate and collect enormous volumes of data the product of the company, different to pair these numbers with qualitative 2 used as foundation for the models.
and we are able to give machines the appropriate input for kinds of external data could be used. information in order to get a more realistic Data preparation is one of the most important and
them to learn and predict outcomes by using algorithms to Below are some examples of open view of the business. This can be achieved critical phases in a data mining project: data needs
external data: with appropriate communication and N to be effectively interpreted and analysed.
interpret raw data. •income-age geographical distribution collaboration between the business and G IO
N T
• blogs or social networks the team involved in the construction of I A EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
T M
Why sales forecasting•articles the forecasting model. C R Primary analyses are carried out on data in order
• macro-economic factors LLE O to use insights from results to define further steps.
Sales forecasting allows companies to spot potential issues or risks and design appropriate •sector indexes O The KPIs that should be used in the machine
corrective actions to mitigate them. C INF 3 learning models would be individuated and it
180 15% would be assessed how they are related to each
160 10% other.
SALES DEMAND INVENTORY FINANCIAL 140
PLANNINGPLANNINGCONTROLSPLANNING 5% MACHINE LEARNING
Sales forecasting helps The sales forecast is the The more accurate the Anticipating sales gives 120 0% N The process of applying statistical algorithms on
sales managers planning best way to get a good sales forecast, the better managers the 100 prepared dataset, providing a rigorous framework
their future activities, estimate of the product prepared your company information they need to -5% IO
providing each of them demand. Sales teams are will be to manage its predict revenue and 80 T to test those models.
with a business plan for in the front line of inventory, avoiding both profit. Having good -10% ING A 4
managing their territory. business forecasting and 60 L M Insights drawn from previous phases are used to
overstock and stock-out forecasting information -15% E R choose the most appropriate models that could be
Forecasting is the tool best positioned to gather situations. Stable gives a company the 40 D O
that helps them identifing information about inventory also means ability to explore 20 -20% O applied, evaluate pros and cons and implement the
the necessary customers anticipated demandbetter management of possibilities to rise both M INF solution.
to meet their targets.your productionrevenue and net income0 -25%
M +1 M +2 M +3 M +4 M +5 M +6 M +7 M +8 M +9 M +10
DEVIATION REAL FORECAST VALIDATION & TESTING
Assess models’ accuracy and robustness. As
INTERNAL CONTINUOS GAIN MARKETINGDEFINE CLEAR NEEDS BE FLEXIBLE TO CHANGE 5 models are used to forecast future sales, they
CONTROLSIMPROVEMENTINSIGHTSBENEFITS should be generalized and be able to give reliable
Having an insight on the Continuous improvement Accurate sales Sales forecasting gives The key phase in creating a sales It is impossible to use a single model that results outside of the dataset they have been
projected production is a goal of many if not all forecasting can help you marketing an important forecasting solution is the understanding will ensure the track of the exact terms, developed on.
rates gives the possibility businesses. By tracking data and gaining look at future sales. and the definition of the business needs: time, and context of every sale. Instead,
to have a better control forecasting sales and insights into areas where This offers the G IONS
of the internal continually revising improvements can be opportunity to schedule this allows to delimit the perimeter of what companies should focus on developing a N RESULTS COMMUNICATION
operations. By processes to increase made. Furthermore, it promotions if sales are I T
is requested, what can be achieved and process that can be managed, re- R A Communicate effectively the advanced analytics
anticipating future sales, accuracy, companies can can help understanding expected to be too weak A T
managers can make improve all aspects of the customers’ behaviour how it can be achieved. Business evaluated, and modified as conditions P C models results and translate them into actionable
E 6
decisions about hiring, their business in order to increase knowledge is essential to define the most change. OM P business insights. Models results should assist
marketing and expansionperformanceconversion rates X
appropriate analytics tool. C E business in decision-making.
The growing world Principles for a great Sales Forecast
of data N PROBLEM DEFINITION
USE EXTERNAL DATAINVOLVE BUSINESS EXPERTSO Identify the main business goals and set
I 1
T expectations before any development phase.
Robust predictions benefit from having Sales forecasting is not a one-time activity, A
T
high quality and easily accessible data. but an ongoing process that affects every ING C
T E
These data can be enriched with external aspect of the sales pipeline. Therefore, it is TPDATA GATHERING & PREPARATION
Data has undoubtedly become the fuel for competitive EX
advantage in the 21st century.sources that can contribute improving the important not only to make predictions SESearch and preprocess the data to define and
quality of the predictions. Depending on based on the numbers on hand but also integrate the different data sources that will be
Nowadays we generate and collect enormous volumes of data the product of the company, different to pair these numbers with qualitative 2used as foundation for the models.
and we are able to give machines the appropriate input for kinds of external data could be used. information in order to get a more realistic Data preparation is one of the most important and
them to learn and predict outcomes by using algorithms to Below are some examples of open view of the business. This can be achieved critical phases in a data mining project: data needs
external data:with appropriate communication and N to be effectively interpreted and analysed.
interpret raw data. •income-age geographical distributioncollaboration between the business and GIO
N T
•blogs or social networksthe team involved in the construction of IAEXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
T M
Why sales forecasting•articlesthe forecasting model.CR Primary analyses are carried out on data in order
•macro-economic factorsLLEO to use insights from results to define further steps.
Sales forecasting allows companies to spot potential issues or risks and design appropriate •sector indexesOThe KPIs that should be used in the machine
corrective actions to mitigate them. CINF 3 learning models would be individuated and it
18015% would be assessed how they are related to each
16010% other.
SALES DEMAND INVENTORY FINANCIAL 140
PLANNINGPLANNINGCONTROLSPLANNING5% MACHINE LEARNING
Sales forecasting helps The sales forecast is the The more accurate the Anticipating sales gives 1200%NThe process of applying statistical algorithms on
sales managers planning best way to get a good sales forecast, the better managers the 100prepared dataset, providing a rigorous framework
their future activities, estimate of the product prepared your company information they need to -5%IO
providing each of them demand. Sales teams are will be to manage its predict revenue and 80Tto test those models.
with a business plan for in the front line of inventory, avoiding both profit. Having good -10%ING A4
managing their territory. business forecasting and 60LM Insights drawn from previous phases are used to
overstock and stock-out forecasting information -15%ER choose the most appropriate models that could be
Forecasting is the tool best positioned to gather situations. Stable gives a company the 40DO
that helps them identifing information about inventory also means ability to explore 20-20%Oapplied, evaluate pros and cons and implement the
the necessary customers anticipated demandbetter management of possibilities to rise both MINFsolution.
to meet their targets.your productionrevenue and net income0-25%
M +1M +2M +3M +4M +5M +6M +7M +8M +9M +10
DEVIATIONREALFORECAST VALIDATION & TESTING
Assess models’ accuracy and robustness. As
INTERNAL CONTINUOS GAIN MARKETINGDEFINE CLEAR NEEDSBE FLEXIBLE TO CHANGE5models are used to forecast future sales, they
CONTROLSIMPROVEMENTINSIGHTSBENEFITS should be generalized and be able to give reliable
Having an insight on the Continuous improvement Accurate sales Sales forecasting gives The key phase in creating a sales It is impossible to use a single model that results outside of the dataset they have been
projected production is a goal of many if not all forecasting can help you marketing an important forecasting solution is the understanding will ensure the track of the exact terms, developed on.
rates gives the possibility businesses. By tracking data and gaining look at future sales. and the definition of the business needs: time, and context of every sale. Instead, NS
to have a better control forecasting sales and insights into areas where This offers the G O
of the internal continually revising improvements can be opportunity to schedule this allows to delimit the perimeter of what companies should focus on developing a NIRESULTS COMMUNICATION
operations. By processes to increase made. Furthermore, it promotions if sales are IT
is requested, what can be achieved and process that can be managed, re-RACommunicate effectively the advanced analytics
anticipating future sales, accuracy, companies can can help understanding expected to be too weakAT
managers can make improve all aspects of the customers’ behaviour how it can be achieved. Business evaluated, and modified as conditions PCmodels results and translate them into actionable
E 6
decisions about hiring, their business in order to increase knowledge is essential to define the most change. OMPbusiness insights. Models results should assist
marketing and expansionperformanceconversion ratesX
appropriate analytics tool.CE business in decision-making.
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