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                                                                  Undercover economist strikes back pdf
      Every Tim Harford book is the cause for celebration. He makes 'bleak science' seem like a lot of terrible fun. Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point An Observer Book of the Year, 2013 Tim Harford's first book, the global bestselling book The Undercover Economist, is a sensation - and has sold more than a million copies worldwide. In it, Harford sees
    the world through the eyes of a micro-economist, from the changing cost of a cappuccino to how supermarkets choose to display products on their shelves. Now, in a world completely transformed by the global recession, Harford is back. In The Undercover Economist Strikes Back, he turns to the broader picture - to macroeconomics - to help us unpick and
    understand the complexities of the major economies - putting YOU in the driver's seat. With a tip now and then, undercover economists encourage you to run the show. Along the way, you'll discover what happens to inflation when you burn a million pound notes, why even prison camps have recession and why Coke has not changed the price of a bottle for
    seventy years. This is a brilliant, witty and insightful book about economic thinking today that will open your eyes like never before. Tim Harford is probably the most famous economic writer in the world... His new book is nothing less than the holy grail of popular economics. Felix Salmon in The New Statesman With compelling examples and living
    explanations, Tim Harford succeeds in turning macroeconomics into a gripping chi. Simon Singh, author of Fermat's Last Theorem... a really special talent for telling a simple and very straightforward story but still incredibly interesting economically. And The Undercover Economist Strikes Back is... just a lovely way to get into economics. NPR's Planet Money -
    Index A chatty, witty guide to inflation, total domestic product and the rest of the big economic picture. The Harford Wall Street Journal's writing is astonishingly accessible. The Independent on Sunday Harford managed to explain the topic with beguiling clarity and in the easy style breezy had featured his previous book. The Times Head of Our Economic
    Storyteller The Independent Reading Harford is like finding yourself next to the funniest, smartest compatriot at the party... Economics professors everywhere should be very scared. The Financial Times' Tim Harford is a riveting expositor of the field, vividly and fairly minded. John Lanchester Accessible, engaging, warm, witty, and fun... a romp through some
    dense dust more of macroeconomic thinking. Bookforum is witty, clearly and meso memorable explanations of complex and important objects. Cory Doctorow, BoingBoing Mr Harford is perhaps the most famous writer economy today. Business Standard, India Tim Harford is a brilliant explainer of economics... A great guide, regardless of your qualifications.
    The London Evening Standard Is highly recommended. Wall Street Journal, India Proposal. Nate Silver, 538.com Harford brings vitality and even humor to other dry themes... a brief, thorough explanation of economic policies and Publishers Weekly issues when the author is as clear-thinking and easy to read as Harford... he was proficient in the art of dealing
    with this topic without using a single diagram or mathematical equation. The Sunday Times he succeeded in giving wise, accessible and balanced explanations... Anyone who really wants to understand the concept of macroeconomics will be delighted with it The Sunday Business Post © 1996-2015, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliate Tim Harford, author of the
    Undercover Economist series of the Financial Times, recently wrote a new book: The Undercover Economist Strikes Back Tim's previous books have tended to cover microeconomics , i.e. the behavior of individuals or companies. But Tim's new book looks at macroeconomics, which is the study of the entire economy or multiple economies. Tim argues that
    behavioural science has a place in economic understanding, even on this large scale: the classic model, which assumes perfect reasonableity on the part of 'economic agents' (i.e. people, companies and governments) was found to want during the economic crisis; Newer models, which account for agents with being out of sight, over-confident, or focused on
    highlights, can do a better job of predicting future crises and dealing with emerging issues. For example, unemployment is often seen as a macroeconomic problem. However, Tim cite The Behavioural Savvy Team's experiments with Job Centre Plus, which use micro and behavioural techniques to help job searchees find work, as an example of the use of
    behavioural science in macroeconomic policy. In fact, we can see the hand of behavioral prejudices at work in macroeconomic concepts such as sticky prices (funding effects), saving paradoxes (uncertainty aversity), and in the failure of the Ricardian equivalent (hyperbolic discounts and procrastination). What are the other examples? Let us know what you
    think. page 5 | position 70-72 | More on Tuesday, 16 December 2014 09:51:44 The Great Depression revolutionized the economy deeply- how could it be if not? Economists wonder what happened, and why, and whether anything could be done. They took new measurements, formulat new theories and proposed new policies, all of which involved the central
    question of economic efficiency in general. In short, the Great Depression born macroeconomics.page 14 | location 212-214 | Added to page T 5 | position 70-72 | Added to 16 December 2014 09:51:44 The Great Depression profoundly revolutionized the economy- how could it be otherwise? Economists wonder what happened, and why, and whether
    anything could be done. They took new measurements, formulat new theories and proposed new policies, all of which involved the central question of economic efficiency in general. In short, the Great Depression gave birth to macroeconomics.page 14 | location 212-214 | More on Tuesday, December 16, 2014 10:42:33Microeconomics relates to things that
    economists are particularly wrong about, while macroeconomics related to things economists are wrong about in general. P. J. O'ROURKE, Eat Richpage 18 | location 265-268 | Add on Tuesday, December 16, 2014 15:15:23If, like Simon Kuznets, you are looking for a unique number to measure the size of the economy, having everything measurable on the
    same scale is handy. Think of it this way: it is a bit like mass. Your brain weighs probably around 3 pounds, and a small bag of sugar can usually weigh a pound. The fact that you appreciate your brain higher than three bags of sugar does not tell us that mass is a useless concept.page 18 | location 272-272 | Add on Tuesday, December 16, 2014 15:15:53Ng
    the invention of GDP never thought it was a measure of welfare, nor should anyone else.page 23 | location 344-345 | More on Tuesday, December 16, 2014 15:31:33 Anyone who asserts that operating a modern economy is a matter of common sense frankly does not understand much about operating a modern economy.page 24 | position 367-370 | More on
    Tuesday, December 16, 2014 15:35:39M simple, usual view of the economy is attractive but dangerous, because in macroeconomics, whenever you point to some obvious changes happening right before your eyes, almost always there is something else changing behind your back , two phenomena connected by invisible wires and pulleys. The definitive
    statement of thispage 49 | position 744-745 | Added on Saturday, December 20, 2014 23:06:56 The money systems as the jeweler's notes were originally anchored to a materially valuable items, but against all intuition that valuable goods turned out to be unnecessary. All that is needed for money to be valuable is for everyone to believe that it has value.page
    51 | position 782-786 | Add on Saturday, December 20, 2014 23:11:29It's what I mean by a standard of value: if you want to track how you're doing, it helps to choose a unit of measurement that's stable in relation to the problem at hand. This usually means thinking about your salary or your net worth of a currency, because good currencies are usually quite
    stable against all the things you might want to buy. It's hard. when thinking about your salary on Apple stock; for that matter it is confusing to think about your salary in the apples.page 61 | position 933-935 | Add on Saturday, December 20, 2014 23:28:03 (There is a handy rule of thumb called rule 72-divided 72 by the annual inflation rate and as a result of
    how many years it will cost twice as much. In this case, 72 divided by 0.7 gives you double prices in a century.) Today, inflation of 0.7 percent is not much: these days central banks aim for 2 percent inflation, or thereabouts. At that rate, the price will double every thirty-five years or so.page 62 | position 938-946 | More on Saturday, December 20, 2014
    23:30:01Specifically, remember the delusion money-professors were angered by a pay cut, but don't mind one under rising wage inflation, even though they are exactly the same thing. That will tell you that a bit of inflation can be quite helpful. Imagine an area of the economy in which productivity is declining, perhaps because foreign competition is lowering
    the price that companies can get for their products. Wages need to be trimmed or the whole area is likely to go bankrupt. We know that bosses probably can't escape the supposed pay cut. If inflation is at 0, it means they won't be able to cut food either. But if there is some inflation, they can get away with the cuts needed to real wages by giving under rising
    inflation. There is another reason to aim for a bit of inflation, one that is thought to be more important: monetary policy is not an accurate science. Central banks will sometimes pass and sometimes undershoot their goals. If they aim not to inflation and undershoot, they get deflable and I want to convince you that deflary is a much more serious problem than
    moderate inflation.page 63 | position 952-957 | Add on Saturday, December 20, 2014 23:31:28But with a drop in inflation, prices start to fall. Your salary is a price, so they are falling. Of course, the price of food, clothing and fuel all fell. But your mortgage repayments never change. It is accounting for a larger and larger portion of your monthly salary. Your loss
    is some of the benefits of saving, of course. But remember that during a recession, what we want is people to spend money to stimulate economic activity. An unexpected dose of downsy will achieve the exact opposite, because it restools money from borrowers to savers, and borrowers are more likely to be spending savings – they won't be borrowing
    otherwise. Add to the problem that when so many people find it difficult to pay back their loans, the entire banking system can run into trouble.page 64 | position 981-987 | More on Saturday, December 20, 2014 23:35:49If you print $100 and give it to a hungry man, he will spend it. If else you give $100 to a ninety-year-old woman with a decent grant and a
    worried layout, she can simply put it in a jar of cookies, just in case she It. That $100 will do nothing to stimulate demand, and it won't increase inflation either. And at the moment, despite the enthusiastic money printing of many central banks around the world since 2008, a lot of money is ending up in the equivalent of cookie jars. Money can help prop up
    spending in the economy as a whole, or it could distort decisions and store trouble for the future. But one thing it doesn't do is create hyperinflity: the rate of inflation remains close to the central bank's target.page 102 | location 1554-1559 | More on Monday, December 22, 2014 23:21:24The childcare downturn is an example of Keynes Law: Lack of demand
    creates its own supply shortage. During a Keynesian recession, Say's Law doesn't hold, and it can offer to stand idle for lack of demand. If consumers don't want to spend, preferring instead to save or pay off their debt, perhaps no price cut will tempt them to change their minds or perhaps a price cut would, but the price cut doesn't come because of sticky
    prices. Business investment may take slack, but then again it can't, because why would businesses invest when they've got factories and shops standing quiet, dark and empty?page 102 | location 1562-1565 | Added on Monday, December 22, 2014 23:22:29 So we found an example when the Intoxication Law was applied and another example when the Law
    of Keynes applied. It sounds like none of them are really the law. Yup. This is social science- what do you expect? Sometimes the output of an economy is limited by demand for goods and services (Keynesian Law) and sometimes it is limited by their potential supply (Say's Law).page 113 | location 1718-1725 | More on Monday, December 22, 2014
    23:43:23It feels like what you're saying is that I should run my economy like a right-wing tough bastard in a boom, and like a bleeding heart-winger during a recession. That's not a bad idea. A boom is a great time to cut spending, pay off debt and try to make the market work better by reducing unnecessary regulations. These are all right-wing horses. A
    recession, however, is a terrible time to do those things. It's better to keep spending, run up debt and launch major infrastructure projects. Unfortunately, it seems we tend to get the opposite: in booming, we feel like we can afford to elect leftist governments to improve Labour protections and launch large public sector projects, often running up debt in the
    process; then when trouble hits, we elect a right-wing government to cut the deficit, scrap investment projects and make a bonfire of labour protection regulations, all of which are all simply make recession worse.page 121 | location 1845-1848 | More on Tuesday, December 23, 2014 7:54:33So that's the meaning in which I semi joked that Henry Ford invented
    Of course unemployment was with us long before Ford came along, but Ford's system introduced a new and important source of unemployment. By pioneering wage efficiency, he helped to bring into existence a group of people who wanted to work, but, through sheer bad luck, could not find work. You should keep in mind that the next time someone tell you
    the unemployed are all shy layabouts work.page 124 | location 1893-1897 | Add on Tuesday, December 23, 2014 08:02:20But we have begun to realize that clearly modeling the job search and recruitment process is valuable. Unemployment is now frequently modeled as a process of finding a match between a suitable vacancy and a suitable worker, like
    dating and marriage. Christopher Pissarides won the Nobel Memorial Prize for his work on the subject. He points out that unemployment is the initial condition of economic existence, just as singles are the initial condition of romantic existence- we are all born unemployed and single, and if we want that situation to change, sooner or later we will have to start
    looking for a match.page match.page match.page 130 | location 1984-1987 | More on Friday, December 26, 2014 00:54:14There are two ways to combat unemployment. One is to fight recession- constantly fighting to get the economy at the top left of the Beveridge curve, with lots of vacancies and few unemployed. But the other is more structured, trying to
    change the curve down and to the left, so that for any given level of vacancy, there will be fewer people without work. For the most part, I don't see any reason why you can't try both methods at the same time.page 164 | position 2515-2517 | Adding on Wednesday, December 31, 2014 01:10:38M the aometer level is inevitable, but also remember that you can
    measure inflation, inequality, unemployment and GDP without having to give some ao shapeless summaries of all four of them. All of these measures, and others, are helpful in informing your policy priorities. Don't exclusively attention.page your 173 | location 2648-2652 | Added on Wednesday, December 31, 2014 1:25:05Pm Reconstruction produced quite
    different results from more traditional surveys of life satisfaction. A survey comparing women in France with those in Ohio found that American women were twice as likely to say they were very happy with their lives. However, it was the French women who spent more time during their day in a good mood. Enjoying as minute-by-minute experience is not like a
    one-time verdict and for all about how satisfying life is. If you really plan not only to measure happy but also to use it to influence policy, this is a distinction you will have to start taking seriously.page 198 | position 3027-3028 | More on Thursday, January 1, 2015 1:57:32The world's wealthiest inequalities provide a mediocre school education for the public an
    excellent higher education for an elite.page 199 | location 3051-3055 | More on Thursday, January 1, 2015 11:43:35Keynes famously commented, If economists can think of themselves as modest, competent people, at a level with dentists, that would be great! It's a good joke, but it's not just a joke; you don't expect your dentist to be able to forecast patterns
    of tooth decay, but you hope that she will be able to give you practically good advice on oral health and interventions to fix problems as they occur. That's what we should ask from economists: useful tips on how to keep the economy functioning well, and solutions when the economy malfunctions. ... More... More
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