The Elements of Strategy
                             Who We Are
       Success Formula: Distinctive Competencies
   Who We Want to Be Where We Have to Work
  Vision: Strategic Intent                          Scenarios: 
                                         The Business Environment
  Kees van der Heijden
       Stratus, Inc.  2017                               2
      Defining Scenarios
                                            “Scenarios are stories 
                                            about the ways that 
                                            the world might turn 
                                            out tomorrow…
                                            …that can help us 
                                            recognize and adapt to 
                                            changing aspects of 
                                            our current 
                                            environment”
                                            Peter Schwartz
       Stratus, Inc.  2017                               3
    Benefits of Scenario Planning
   
      Leads to robust decisions in the face of 
    uncertainty;
   
      Allows for more flexibility in a changing 
    world;
   
      Provides a means to imagine and plan for 
    risks (risk mitigation);
   
      Encourages creativity and innovation;
   
      Allows for the creation of a common vision;
   
      Helps divergent views come into alignment. 
       Stratus, Inc.  2017                               4
     Scenarios are Not Forecasts
        Planning for One Future            Planning for A Range of Futures
        Viewpoint: Past                            Viewpoint: Multiple 
        largely determines                         forces can affect 
        future                                     future
                                                    5
Source: Global Business Network
        Strategic Focus
        o Core Strategic Question that is the basis for 
           scenario exploration. 
        o Developed from strategic themes that emerge 
           through data gathering.
             o Unique, Distinctive Capability
             o Strategic Challenges and Opportunities
                 o Growth
                 o Sustainability
                 o …
             o Visions of Success
        o Relevancy filter for scenario content development
        Stratus, Inc.  2017                                           6