Technology Roadmapping
                              (TRM)
   • Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis
   • Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary
   • Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum
   • Viewing Business Implications & Context of Technology 
     trends
   • Unifying, Big-Picture perspective
   • Long-term view, “futurecasting”
   • Neutral-ground for discussion among industry players & 
     MIT research sponsors
   • Appealing to MBA, MEng, & industrially-inclined PhD 
     students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar
                                   
  Technology 
  Roadmapping
  Fall Semester 2002 Class 
  Offering
  Emerging MIT Sloan research 
  theme
                                   
    Generalizing & Enriching Historic 
      Technology & Demand Trends
      • Historical Efforts
         – Moore’s Law
         – Electronic Devices
         – Sematech Roadmap
         – Disk Drives
      • Ongoing
         – Optical Networking
         – Wireless
      • Future
         – New technologies
        …
                                 
                         Moore’s Law
   Transistors per chip
       9
     10                                                              ?
       8
     10
                                               Pentium80786
       7
     10                                          Pro
                                      80486
       6                                   Pentium
     10
                               80386
                          80286
       5
     10
                    8086
       4     8080
     10
        4004
       3
     10
      1970    1975     1980    1985    1990    1995    2000     2005    2010
                                     Year
                                        
   Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999
                                                           Source: Fine, MIT
      Roadmap for Electronic Devices
  Number of chip components
      18                                                          o
    10                                                         295 K
                   Classical Age                 Quantum Age
      16
    10
      14                                           o
    10                                           77 K
                                            o
      12                                   4 K
    10                                 2010
                       SIA Roadmap 2005        Quantum State Switch
      10
    10                          2000
                             1995
      8
    10 Historical Trend
                     1990         CMOS
      6
    10
               1980
      4
    10 1970
      2
    10
         1              0              -1             -2              -3
       10             10             10             10              10
                               Feature size (microns)  Source: Fine, MIT
                                      
     Horst D. Simon