Do Facts Persuade? 
  • Two Persuasive Facts
   –Economic growth in election year
   –# of terms of incumbent administration
  • Facts (largely) don’t persuade. Why?
   – Elite polarization          mass tribal identities
   –Voters motivated by psychological (not policy) 
    benefits
   –Facts are contested in partisan media 
   How Does Political Persuasion Work?
  • Heterogeneity
   –Not everyone persuaded through the same means
  • Political Engagement
   –Engaged citizens (expressive motivation)
   –Unengaged citizens (instrumental motivation)
   To change an opinion, we need to understand the 
   motivational basis of the current opinion.
        Political Engagement and 
        Psychological Motivation
  Among politically engaged citizens, economic preferences 
  are symbolic.
    – They express the desire for group allegiance
  Among unengaged citizens, economic preference are 
  instrumental.
   – They express the desire for social protection
                 Persuasion among the Engaged
      Engaged citizens form partisan attachments on the basis of 
      “dispositional sorting” and “cultural resonance.” Then, they 
      proceed to toe the party line on policy issues.
                                                          *Partisan Cue-Taking
                                                           *Cultural Framing
            Dispositional Sorting   Cultural Resonance       *Elite Signaling
       Needs for 
       Needs for                                                             Oppose
                           God, Guns,               Identify with            Oppose
         Order,            God, Guns,               Identify with 
         Order,                                                              Social 
                               Etc.                  Republicans             Social 
        Certainty              Etc.                  Republicans
        Certainty                                                           Welfare
                                                                            Welfare
      and Security
      and Security
        Persuasion among the Unengaged
   The stronger one’s needs for order, certainty and security, the 
   greater the desire for government protection against the rough 
   edges of capitalism.
                *Natural Resonance
          Needs for 
          Needs for       Support
                          Support
           Order, 
           Order,         Social
                          Social
         Certainty and 
         Certainty and    Welfare
                          Welfare
          Security
          Security