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Topics Introduction of pharmaceutical industry Drug development process and clinical trials. Biostatistics in clinical trials: ◦ Study design ◦ Clinical data ◦ Statistical modeling Other topics STATISTICS IN DRUG DEVELOPMENT 2 Drug Drug definition: according to the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act): (1): a substance recognized in an official pharmacopoeia or formulary (2): a substance intended for use in the diagnosis, cure, mitigation, treatment, or prevention of disease (3): a substance other than food intended to affect the structure or function of the body (4): a substance intended for use as a component of a medicine but not a device or a component, part, or accessory of a device Novartis (60.9B), Simple version: A Chemical Substance that Interacts with a Living System and Produces a Biological Response STATISTICS IN DRUG DEVELOPMENT 3 Drug “New Drug” vs “Generic Drug” New Drug patents expire 20 years from the date of filing. Many other factors can affect the duration of a patent. Since the company applies for a patent long before the clinical trial to assess a drug’s safety and efficacy has commenced, the effective patent period after the drug has finally received approval is often around seven to twelve years. New drugs (brand names) and generic drugs have the same pharmacological effects (dosage, intended use, effects, side effects, route of administration, risks, safety, etc.) and pharmacokinetics. For example: Glucophage vs. metformin. “Prescription Only” vs “Over the Counter” Other drugs (orphan drugs), medical devices, vaccine STATISTICS IN DRUG DEVELOPMENT 4 Pharmaceutical Industry List of 2013 top biotech and pharmaceutical companies (Revenue): Johnson & Jonson (71.3B), Novartis (60.9B), Roche (52.4B), Pfizer (51.6B), Sanofi, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Abbott Lab. List of 2013 top biotech and pharmaceutical companies (Net income): Pfizer (US, 22B), Johnson & Jonson (13.8B), Roche (Switzerland, 12.B), Novartis (Switzerland, 9.5B), GlaxoSmithKline (UK, 9B), Sanofi (France, 5.1B), Amgen (US, 5.1B), Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Merck. STATISTICS IN DRUG DEVELOPMENT 5 Pharmaceutical Industry: Drug Example of Blockbuster drugs from AstraZeneca: AstraZeneca's Nexium (heartburn and acid reflux medication) Sale: 5B (2009), 5B (2010), 4.4B (2011), 3.9B (2012), 6.14B (2013, the top 2nd) Patent expired May 2014. AstraZeneca will not release an OTC drug. AstraZeneca's Crestor (indication: cholesterol) Sale: 5.3B (2013, the top 4th). Patent is going to expire in 2016. Example of Blockbuster drugs from Pfizer: Lipitor (Pfizer, indication: cholesterol) had sale Q3/2012 as $0.186B. The patent expired in November, 2011. Lipitor sales in 2010: $10.7B for the year. STATISTICS IN DRUG DEVELOPMENT 6
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