320x Filetype PPTX File size 1.86 MB Source: assets.website-files.com
Disclaimer
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
This document is confidential and intended solely for the addressee and may not be published or distributed without the express written consent of Mileura
Capital (UK) Limited, This document is not intended for public use or distribution. This document does not constitute either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an
offer to buy any interest in any business, strategy or fund associated with Mileura Capital (UK) Limited. Any such offer would only be made at the time a
qualified offeree receives the fund’s confidential offering memorandum and related subscription documentation (together, the “Offering Documents”). To the
extent, therefore, there is any inconsistency between this document and the Offering Documents, the Offering Documents govern in all respects.
The information contained in this document, including with respect to portfolio construction, risk management parameters and strategy-type information, is
current only as of the date listed herein, supersedes any prior disclosures and is subject to change without notice.
There is no secondary market for the sale of an investor’s interest in any fund and none is expected to develop. In addition, there are restrictions on
transferring interests in the funds. Mileura Capital has broad latitude with respect to risk management and is not subject to any formal diversification policies
limiting the business, strategy or fund’s portfolio investments or to policies restricting leverage, position size or duration of any position within any managed
portfolio investment. Any information regarding portfolio characteristics contained herein is intended for general guideline purposes only and not as a
limitation on the portfolio construction of any Mileura Capital managed fund at any time.
Mileura Capital-managed assets could experience volatile performance from time to time depending on prevailing market conditions. Past performance results
of a fund are not necessarily indicative of future results and future results could therefore materially vary. Neither Mileura Capital, nor its principals, officers,
employees or associated funds or entities hereby makes any representation to any person or entity as to the suitability for any purpose of an investment in any
fund or asset associated with Mileura Capital.
Figures are rounded as applicable. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate and/or derived from sources which Mileura Capital believes to be
reliable; however Mileura Capital disclaims any and all liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein and for any omissions of
material facts.
Private and Confidential. 2
Mileura Capital – Coffee
Opportunity
Market Background
The purpose of this coffee piece is to highlight the opportunity that exists in the global coffee market. It will show that after a period of being a directionless, low
volatility market we are now entering into a period where volatility is likely to be more fundamentally driven. In this type of environment being nimble and having access
to capital will be unique and combination that should see a sustained period of outperformance vs piers and other soft commodity opportunities.
Coffee Market
A brief history of the last 5 years
After setting very high prices in 2014 and 2015 both
in USD and domestic terms, coffee has been an
oversupplied market with large visible stocks at
destination.
During 2016 and 2017 a large oversupply coupled
with:
a) Departure of a large pool of discretionary
managed capital at funds and trade
houses
b) Large increase is risk premia strategies
across the agricultural commodity
complex that especially hit large carry
markets like Arabica and Wheat
This has left very few participants with robust
fundamental analysis, capital to allocate and small
overheads Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary
and confidential information. Not for duplication or 3
distribution
Coffee – Fundamentals Start to
Matter
Fundamentals start to impact the Arabica Market
Cash market basis starts to impact the spreads on Arabica for the first time in Q3/Q4 2019
Large risk premia funds become a target as fundamental buyers secure coverage in an off-cycle year
With production uncertainties persisting and available supply depleting due to supply side constraints we have started to see more fundamentally driven volatility in
futures and cash markets
Can see Central American (CAM) and Colombia basis levels starting to rise.
Correlations between Arabica spreads and basis starts increasing reflecting a fundamentally led rally in prices and spreads
Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary
and confidential information. Not for duplication or 4
distribution
Coffee – Stocks are Drawing
Fundamentals start to impact the Arabica Market
Not only are basis levels rising due to issues at origin, but we are seeing global stocks drawing down. This is not typical seasonal behaviour
Below is a chart of Green Coffee Association stocks in the USA
The heatmap shows the typical season pattern over the past 10 years
As you can see Q1 and Q2 are not usually period of draws in stocks
Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary
and confidential information. Not for duplication or 5
distribution
Certified Stocks are Changing
Hands
Fundamentals start to impact the Arabica Market
We are now seeing the movement from and to the exchanged
certified stocks
In late 2019 this was because the terminal market was your
cheapest source of coffee. This helped drive a move from 90c
to 140c in a matter of weeks
This has continued to cause issues in Q1 and Q2 in 2020
This present great trading opportunities from both sides a
certified stocks move from being the cheapest to most
expensive source of coffee
As stocks decline it creates more volatility in spreads, physical
basis and outright futures
Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary
and confidential information. Not for duplication or 6
distribution
no reviews yet
Please Login to review.