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picture1_Business Spread Sheet 42366 | 5ea29e8b3c914d0d1a1e6d5a Mileura Coffee Market April2020


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File: Business Spread Sheet 42366 | 5ea29e8b3c914d0d1a1e6d5a Mileura Coffee Market April2020
disclaimer past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results this document is confidential and intended solely for the addressee and may not be published or distributed without the express ...

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       Disclaimer
       PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS 
       This document is confidential and intended solely for the addressee and may not be published or distributed without the express written consent of Mileura 
       Capital (UK) Limited, This document is not intended for public use or distribution. This document does not constitute either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an 
       offer to buy any interest in any business, strategy or fund associated with Mileura Capital (UK) Limited. Any such offer would only be made at the time a 
       qualified offeree receives the fund’s confidential offering memorandum and related subscription documentation (together, the “Offering Documents”). To the 
       extent, therefore, there is any inconsistency between this document and the Offering Documents, the Offering Documents govern in all respects. 
       The information contained in this document, including with respect to portfolio construction, risk management parameters and strategy-type information, is 
       current only as of the date listed herein, supersedes any prior disclosures and is subject to change without notice. 
       There is no secondary market for the sale of an investor’s interest in any fund and none is expected to develop. In addition, there are restrictions on 
       transferring interests in the funds. Mileura Capital has broad latitude with respect to risk management and is not subject to any formal diversification policies 
       limiting the business, strategy or fund’s portfolio investments or to policies restricting leverage, position size or duration of any position within any managed 
       portfolio investment. Any information regarding portfolio characteristics contained herein is intended for general guideline purposes only and not as a 
       limitation on the portfolio construction of any Mileura Capital managed fund at any time. 
       Mileura Capital-managed assets could experience volatile performance from time to time depending on prevailing market conditions. Past performance results 
       of a fund are not necessarily indicative of future results and future results could therefore materially vary. Neither Mileura Capital, nor its principals, officers, 
       employees or associated funds or entities hereby makes any representation to any person or entity as to the suitability for any purpose of an investment in any 
       fund or asset associated with Mileura Capital.
       Figures are rounded as applicable. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate and/or derived from sources which Mileura Capital believes to be 
       reliable; however Mileura Capital disclaims any and all liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein and for any omissions of 
       material facts. 
                                   Private and Confidential.              2
                                   Mileura Capital – Coffee 
                                   Opportunity
                Market Background
                The purpose of this coffee piece is to highlight the opportunity that exists in the global coffee market. It will show that after a period of being a directionless, low 
                volatility market we are now entering into a period where volatility is likely to be more fundamentally driven. In this type of environment being nimble and having access 
                to capital will be unique and combination that should see a sustained period of outperformance vs piers and other soft commodity opportunities.
                Coffee Market 
                A brief history of the last 5 years
                 After setting very high prices in 2014 and 2015 both 
                    in USD and domestic terms, coffee has been an 
                    oversupplied market with large visible stocks at 
                    destination. 
                 During 2016 and 2017 a large oversupply coupled 
                    with:
                        a)    Departure of a large pool of discretionary 
                              managed capital at funds and trade 
                              houses
                        b)    Large increase is risk premia strategies 
                              across the agricultural commodity 
                              complex that especially hit large carry 
                              markets like Arabica and Wheat
                 This has left very few participants with robust 
                    fundamental analysis, capital to allocate and small 
                    overheads                                                  Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary 
                                                                                    and confidential information. Not for duplication or                                                                        3
                                                                                                           distribution
                               Coffee – Fundamentals Start to 
                               Matter
              Fundamentals start to impact the Arabica Market
               Cash market basis starts to impact the spreads on Arabica for the first time in Q3/Q4 2019
               Large risk premia funds become a target as fundamental buyers secure coverage in an off-cycle year
               With production uncertainties persisting and available supply depleting due to supply side constraints we have started to see more fundamentally driven volatility in 
                  futures and cash markets 
               Can see Central American (CAM) and Colombia basis levels starting to rise. 
               Correlations between Arabica spreads and basis starts increasing reflecting a fundamentally led rally in prices and spreads
                                                                       Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary 
                                                                           and confidential information. Not for duplication or                                                           4
                                                                                                distribution
                               Coffee – Stocks are Drawing
              Fundamentals start to impact the Arabica Market
               Not only are basis levels rising due to issues at origin, but we are seeing global stocks drawing down. This is not typical seasonal behaviour
               Below is a chart of Green Coffee Association stocks in the USA
               The heatmap shows the typical season pattern over the past 10 years
               As you can see Q1 and Q2 are not usually period of draws in stocks
                                                                       Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary 
                                                                           and confidential information. Not for duplication or                                                           5
                                                                                                distribution
                               Certified Stocks are Changing 
                               Hands
              Fundamentals start to impact the Arabica Market
               We are now seeing the movement from and to the exchanged 
                  certified stocks
               In late 2019 this was because the terminal market was your 
                  cheapest source of coffee. This helped drive a move from 90c 
                  to 140c in a matter of weeks
               This has continued to cause issues in Q1 and Q2 in 2020
               This present great trading opportunities from both sides a 
                  certified stocks move from being the cheapest to most 
                  expensive source of coffee
               As stocks decline it creates more volatility in spreads, physical 
                  basis and outright futures
                                                                       Past results are not indicative of future results / Proprietary 
                                                                           and confidential information. Not for duplication or                                                           6
                                                                                                distribution
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...Disclaimer past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results this document confidential and intended solely for the addressee may be published or distributed without express written consent mileura capital uk limited public use distribution does constitute either an offer to sell a solicitation buy any interest in business strategy fund associated with such would only made at time qualified offeree receives s offering memorandum related subscription documentation together documents extent therefore there inconsistency between govern all respects information contained including respect portfolio construction risk management parameters type current as date listed herein supersedes prior disclosures subject change notice no secondary market sale investor none expected develop addition are restrictions on transferring interests funds has broad latitude formal diversification policies limiting investments restricting leverage position size duration within managed investment r...

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