UNDERSTANDING & IMPROVING THE 
                                                                                    SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRO-ECOLOGICAL 
                                                                                    FARMING SYSTEMS IN THE EU  
                                  Deliverable Report D4.2 Report on 
                                  Participatory Scenario Development 
                                  of Agro-ecological Farming 
                                  Systems. Version 2.0. 
                                   AUTHORS:                                                                                     Elin Röös (SLU), Andreas Mayer (BOKU), Karl-Heinz Erb (BOKU), 
                                                                                                                                Gerald Kalt (BOKU), Lisa Kaufmann (BOKU), Sarah Matej (BOKU), 
                                                                                                                                Michaela Theurl (BOKU), Christian Lauk (BOKU), Adrian Muller 
                                                                                                                                (FiBL),  Shon  Ferguson  (SLU),  Rob  Hart  (SLU),  Pete  Smith 
                                                                                                                                (UNIABDN) 
                                                                                                                                With input from all partners 
                                   APPROVED BY WORK PACKAGE                                                                     Karlheinz Erb (BOKU) 
                                   MANAGER OF WP4 
                                   DATE OF APPROVAL:                                                                            04.03.2021 
                                   APPROVED BY PROJECT                                                                          Gerald Schwarz (Thünen Institute) 
                                   COORDINATOR:  
                                   DATE OF APPROVAL:                                                                            04.03.2021 
                                   CALL H2020-SFS-2017-2                                                                        Sustainable Food Security-Resilient and Resource-Efficient 
                                                                                                                                Value Chains 
                                   WORK PROGRAMME                                                                               Socio-eco-economics - socio-economics in ecological 
                                   Topic SFS-29-2017                                                                            approaches 
                                   PROJECT WEB SITE:                                                                            www.uniseco-project.eu 
                                    
                                   This document was produced under the terms and conditions of Grant Agreement No. 773901 for the 
                                   European Commission. It does not necessary reflect the view of the European Union and in no way anticipates 
                                   the Commission’s future policy in this area. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                    This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation                                                                                                   
                                                                    programme under grant agreement N° 773901. 
                                    
                                                                                                                            Report D4.2 Report on Participatory Scenario Development of AEFS 
                                                                       
                            
                                                                                                             This page is left blank deliberately. 
                                                                                                   
                                                           This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research                                                                                                                       1 
                                                           and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 773901. 
                            
                                                                                                                               Report D4.2 Report on Participatory Scenario Development of AEFS 
                                                                       
                            
                            
                           TABLE OF CONTENTS 
                           EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. 4 
                           1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 6 
                           2. BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................... 6 
                                2.1. THE USE OF SCENARIOS .............................................................................................................. 6 
                                2.2. RECENT SCENARIO WORK RELATED TO FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ............................................ 8 
                           3. METHODS .......................................................................................................... 11 
                                3.1. OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND MODELS ......................................................................... 11 
                                3.2. DEVELOPMENT OF STORYLINES ................................................................................................ 12 
                                3.3. STAKEHOLDER INTERACTIONS AND STORYLINE REFINEMENT ................................................. 13 
                                3.4. BIOPHYSICAL MODELLING ......................................................................................................... 15 
                                                   OVERVIEW OF BIOBAM AND THE SOL MODEL ................................................................................ 15 
                                                   INDICATORS USED ........................................................................................................................... 16 
                                                   MODELLING INPUT .......................................................................................................................... 20 
                                3.5. ECONOMIC MODELLING ........................................................................................................... 23 
                                                   OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................... 23 
                                                   DATA ................................................................................................................................................ 23 
                                                   MODELLING APPROACH .................................................................................................................. 24 
                                                   SOLUTION PROCEDURE AND OUTPUTS .......................................................................................... 26 
                           4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................. 28 
                                4.1. THE STORYLINES ........................................................................................................................ 28 
                                                   STORYLINE 1: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL ................................................................................................. 33 
                                                   STORYLINE 2: AGRO-ECOLOGY FOR EXPORTS ................................................................................. 35 
                                                   STORYLINE 3A: LOCALISATION FOR PROTECTIONISM ..................................................................... 37 
                                                   STORYLINE 3B: LOCALISATION FOR SUSTAINABILITY ...................................................................... 40 
                                                   STORYLINE 4: LOCAL AGRO-ECOLOGICAL FOOD SYSTEMS ............................................................. 42 
                                4.2. BIOPHYSICAL MODELLING RESULTS .......................................................................................... 45 
                                                   LAND USE AND BIOMASS USE OF STORYLINES AND TRADE ........................................................... 45 
                                                   ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ............................................................................................................ 56 
                                                   ANIMAL WELFARE ........................................................................................................................... 60 
                                                   LABOUR USE AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY ..................................................................................... 62 
                                4.3. ECONOMIC MODELLING RESULTS ............................................................................................. 65 
                                                   CHANGES IN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS .......................................... 66 
                                                   REQUIRED POLICY CHANGES: 2050 BAU VERSUS AGRO-ECOLOGY-FOR-EXPORT SCENARIO ......... 66 
                                                   REQUIRED POLICY CHANGES: 2050 BAU VERSUS LOCALISATION-FOR-PROTECTIONISM SCENARIO
                                       ................................................................................................................................................................... 69 
                                                   REQUIRED POLICY CHANGES: 2050 BAU VERSUS LOCALISATION-FOR-SUSTAINABILITY SCENARIO
                                       ................................................................................................................................................................... 69 
                                                    REQUIRED  POLICY  CHANGES:  2050  BAU  VERSUS  LOCAL-AGRO-ECOLOGICAL-FOOD-SYSTEMS 
                                      SCENARIO .................................................................................................................................................. 70 
                                                   ECONOMIC WELFARE, PRODUCER REVENUE AND EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS ................................... 70 
                           5. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................... 79 
                                                           This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research                                                                                                                           2 
                                                           and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 773901. 
                            
                                                                                                                               Report D4.2 Report on Participatory Scenario Development of AEFS 
                                                                       
                            
                           ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................... 81 
                           REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 82 
                            
                                                                                                   
                                                           This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research                                                                                                                           3 
                                                           and innovation programme under grant agreement N° 773901.