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“Vision 2030”
Natural Gas Infrastructure in India
Report by Industry Group
For
Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board
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Contents
Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................... 5
Objective of the study and sub‐group participants ...................................................................................... 6
Disclaimer...................................................................................................................................................... 7
1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 8
2 Natural Gas – Demand/ Supply Dynamics .......................................................................................... 13
2.1 Present Demand Scenario ........................................................................................................... 13
2.2 Demand Projections .................................................................................................................... 15
2.2.1 Approach & Methodology................................................................................................... 17
2.2.2 Power Sector Demand ........................................................................................................ 18
2.2.3 Fertilizer Sector Demand .................................................................................................... 23
2.2.4 CGD Sector Demand ............................................................................................................ 25
2.2.5 Other Consumer Sectors’ Demand ..................................................................................... 27
2.2.6 Consolidated demand ......................................................................................................... 28
2.2.7 Regional distribution of demand ........................................................................................ 30
2.3 Present Supply Scenario .............................................................................................................. 33
2.4 Supply Projections ....................................................................................................................... 33
2.4.1 Approach & Methodology................................................................................................... 34
2.4.2 Domestic Production........................................................................................................... 35
2.4.3 Imports of LNG .................................................................................................................... 36
2.4.4 Gas Imports through Cross Border Pipelines ...................................................................... 38
2.4.5 Non Conventional Sources .................................................................................................. 38
2.4.6 Consolidated supply projections ......................................................................................... 40
2.5 Demand Supply Balance ............................................................................................................. 42
3 Natural Gas Infrastructure .................................................................................................................. 44
3.1 Present state of Infrastructure ................................................................................................... 44
3.2 Infrastructure Projection – Approach & Methodology ............................................................... 46
3.3 Pipeline Infrastructure – Development Plans ............................................................................. 47
3.4 Scope for further development .................................................................................................. 52
4 Gas Sector – Current status ................................................................................................................ 55
4.1 Present State in India .................................................................................................................. 55
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4.2 International Examples ............................................................................................................... 57
4.2.1 USA ...................................................................................................................................... 57
4.2.2 UK ........................................................................................................................................ 59
4.2.3 Market evolution models .................................................................................................... 60
4.3 Focus areas for India ................................................................................................................... 61
4.3.1 Policy Issues ........................................................................................................................ 62
4.3.2 Regulatory Issues ................................................................................................................ 67
4.3.3 Indicative Action Plan .......................................................................................................... 72
FIGURES
Figure 1 Demand Projection Methodology ...................................................................................... 17
Figure 2 Region wise gas based power generation capacity (%) ............................................. 19
Figure 3 Gas demand for power sector from 2012-13 to 2029-30 ............................................. 22
Figure 4 Gas demand from fertilizer sector: 2012-13 to 2029-30 ............................................... 24
Figure 5 Gas demand from CGD sector: 2012-13 to 2029-30 ..................................................... 26
Figure 6 Gas demand from other consuming sectors: 2012-13 to 2029-30 ............................ 27
Figure 7 Consolidated demand growth trajectory ......................................................................... 29
Figure 8 Consolidated Demand - Break up in 2012-13 and 2016-17 ......................................... 29
Figure 9 Consolidated Demand - Break up in 2021-22 and 2029-30 ........................................ 30
Figure 10 Regional markets in India ................................................................................................ 30
Figure 11 Regional contributions to demand ................................................................................ 32
Figure 12 Regional demand growth profiles ................................................................................. 32
Figure 13 Gas supply projection methodology .............................................................................. 34
Figure 14 Natural Gas Supply Growth Profile ............................................................................... 41
Figure 16 Existing gas transmission network in India ................................................................. 46
Figure 17: Gas infrastructure projection methodology ............................................................... 47
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Figure 18 Gas transmission network in India at the end of 12 five year plan ..................... 50
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Figure 19: Gas transmission network in India at the end of 13 five year plan .................... 51
Figure 20: Infrastructure addition linked to ICF’s NGG proposal and CBM Blocks ............. 52
Figure 21: Natural gas chain (India) .................................................................................................. 56
Figure 22 U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network, 2009 ...................................................................... 57
Figure 23 National Transmission System (UK) .............................................................................. 59
Figure 24 Major structural and market elements for an enabling environment .................... 61
Figure 25 Action plan for development ............................................................................................ 73
TABLES
Table 1 Primary energy mix for India ................................................................................................ 13
Table 2 Sector wise natural gas consumption in India (January 2013) ................................... 14
Table 3 Regional gas markets in India ............................................................................................. 15
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Table 4 Demand drivers for various end user segments ............................................................ 16
Table 5 SUMMARY OF INSTALLED CAPACITY AS ON 31.03.2012 .......................................... 18
Table 6 Gas Demand for Power Projects by End of 12th Plan (2016-17) ............................... 21
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Table 7 Power Sector Gas Demand - 12 and 13 five year plan ............................................ 22
Table 8 Power Sector Gas Demand - 2023 to 2030 ...................................................................... 22
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Table 9 Fertilizer Sector Gas Demand - 12 and 13 five year plan ........................................ 24
Table 10 Fertilizer Sector Gas Demand - 2023 to 2030 ............................................................... 24
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Table 11 Total Realistic Demand - 12 and 13 five year plan ................................................. 28
Table 12 Total Realistic Demand - 2023 to 2030 ............................................................................ 28
Table 13 Regional Markets – Constituent States ........................................................................... 31
Table 14 Regional Demand Distribution .......................................................................................... 31
Table 15 Natural gas availability by source in India ..................................................................... 33
Table 16 Domestic Supply Projections (MMSCMD) ...................................................................... 35
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Table 17 Domestic gas availability - 12 and 13 five year plan ............................................... 35
Table 18 Domestic gas availability - 2023 to 2030 ......................................................................... 36
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Table 19 Imported LNG - 12 and 13 five year plans ................................................................. 37
Table 20 Imported LNG - 2023 to 2030 .............................................................................................. 37
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Table 21 Gas availability (cross border pipelines) - 12 and 13 five year plans ................. 38
Table 22 Gas availability (cross border pipelines) - 2023 to 2030 ............................................. 38
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Table 23 Total gas availability - 12 and 13 five year plan ....................................................... 41
Table 24 Total gas availability - 2023 to 2030 ................................................................................. 41
Table 25 Natural gas transmission infrastructure in India .......................................................... 44
Table 26 Natural gas transmission infrastructure in India – Regional Distribution ............. 45
Table 27 Pipeline authorizations by MoPNG in 2007 .................................................................... 48
Table 28 Pipeline Authorizations through EOI Route / Pending EOI’s .................................... 48
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Table 29 Gas pipelines expected to be commissioned in the 12 five year plan ................. 49
Table 30 Summary – Pipeline infrastructure in 2030 .................................................................... 51
Table 31 Demand-Supply-Capacity from 2022-23 to 2029-30 ..................................................... 53
Table 32 Regional Infrastructure in 2030 ......................................................................................... 54
Table 33 Focus Areas ........................................................................................................................... 62
ANNEXURES
ANNEXURE – I ‐ List of Thermal ( Gas Based ) Power Station as on 31.03.2012
ANNEXURE – II ‐ Gas demand for Future power plants
ANNEXURE – III – Plant wise gas requirement of UREA plants in 2010‐11
ANNEXURE – IV – Demand Projections for UREA plants/ projects from 2012 ‐2030
ANNEXURE – V – Gas consumption by CGD entitis for the year 2010‐11
ANNEXURE – VI – Assumed GA’s for new CGD networks for the period 2016‐17 to 2021‐22
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ANNEXURE – VII – Pipeline Development Schedulefor pipelines expanding beyond 13 plan
ANNEXURE – VIII – Pipeline capacity at source ‐ existing and additional
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